Economic recovery is on its way but have we learned anything?
Thursday, April 23, 2009
There seem to be some signs that the economy has perhaps bottomed out and that we're on our way to recovery. Forbes columnists Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein paint a realistic picture in terms of positive signs. They mention that while unemployment is personal and emotional, it is a lagging indicator to recovery.
On the other hand, there's no shortage of headlines about what exactly constitutes the bottom and what the upcoming earnings reports will mean in terms of recovery.
While this is certainly shaping up to be one of the deeper recessions - you can point to any number of stories and anecdotes that draw comparisons to the early 1930's - is it too soon to start talking about an upward trajectory?
I'm as optimistic as the next CEO when it comes to ushering in a better economic climate and I'll leave the deep economic analysis to the experts. However, I have to wonder if it's just me or if anybody else out there thinks that given that depth of the plunge that we may be a bit premature in our recovery predictions?
Now for all intents and purposes, the recession officially began in December of 2007 and we didn't really begin to get nervous until the Wall Street headlines that surfaced in September of 2008 and let's face it, we didn't officially declare the recession until the first quarter of 2009.
Despite the fact that the recession had been underway for some time, we didn't really feel its impact until the past six months or so. It could be a chicken and egg thing in terms of headlines. Or it could be the plain fact that the economy is always expanding and contracting and that we'll continue to see surges and spikes - though hopefully not as drastic.
If we do start to see more signs of recovery later this year and throughout 2010, have we learned anything? And if we did, will we remember those lessons when times are a bit healthier?
The rhetorical answer is, of course, yes. The realistic answer is perhaps a few lessons. The idealistic answer is that we'll emerge as smarter, more nimble players that won't get caught by surprise the next time around.
From an IT and business perspective, here's three lessons I've learned from this recession and plan to keep in the forefront of my mind:
1. Transparency is key. Whether you're talking about IT infrastructures, complex financial models or the viability of the business plan that you present to VCs, visibility will ultimately lead you to profitability.
2. Go shopping in your own IT closet before investing in new technology. You'd be surprised how you can work with what you already have to gain greater efficiencies and cost savings instead of tossing out the baby with the bathwater.
3. Prepare for a rainy day. Make sure you have a good handle on the IT infrastructure in terms of documenting processes, tracking changes to the code and instituting policies so that you're running the most efficient organization regardless of external economic forces.
I'm hoping to add to this list so if you have more lessons learned from the recession trenches, please send them along.
- Jeff
On the other hand, there's no shortage of headlines about what exactly constitutes the bottom and what the upcoming earnings reports will mean in terms of recovery.
While this is certainly shaping up to be one of the deeper recessions - you can point to any number of stories and anecdotes that draw comparisons to the early 1930's - is it too soon to start talking about an upward trajectory?
I'm as optimistic as the next CEO when it comes to ushering in a better economic climate and I'll leave the deep economic analysis to the experts. However, I have to wonder if it's just me or if anybody else out there thinks that given that depth of the plunge that we may be a bit premature in our recovery predictions?
Now for all intents and purposes, the recession officially began in December of 2007 and we didn't really begin to get nervous until the Wall Street headlines that surfaced in September of 2008 and let's face it, we didn't officially declare the recession until the first quarter of 2009.
Despite the fact that the recession had been underway for some time, we didn't really feel its impact until the past six months or so. It could be a chicken and egg thing in terms of headlines. Or it could be the plain fact that the economy is always expanding and contracting and that we'll continue to see surges and spikes - though hopefully not as drastic.
If we do start to see more signs of recovery later this year and throughout 2010, have we learned anything? And if we did, will we remember those lessons when times are a bit healthier?
The rhetorical answer is, of course, yes. The realistic answer is perhaps a few lessons. The idealistic answer is that we'll emerge as smarter, more nimble players that won't get caught by surprise the next time around.
From an IT and business perspective, here's three lessons I've learned from this recession and plan to keep in the forefront of my mind:
1. Transparency is key. Whether you're talking about IT infrastructures, complex financial models or the viability of the business plan that you present to VCs, visibility will ultimately lead you to profitability.
2. Go shopping in your own IT closet before investing in new technology. You'd be surprised how you can work with what you already have to gain greater efficiencies and cost savings instead of tossing out the baby with the bathwater.
3. Prepare for a rainy day. Make sure you have a good handle on the IT infrastructure in terms of documenting processes, tracking changes to the code and instituting policies so that you're running the most efficient organization regardless of external economic forces.
I'm hoping to add to this list so if you have more lessons learned from the recession trenches, please send them along.
- Jeff
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